Long-Term Unemployment in Ireland: Duration Analysis of the Live Register

12/02/2009

According to an article in the Irish Independent over the weekend, the number of long-term unemployed in Ireland increased by 55% in the year ending October (2009). The article also states that the long-term jobless rate now stands at 2.6%.

“The long-term unemployment figure will continue rising in the next couple of years before peaking at 5%,” said National Irish Bank chief economist Ronnie O’Toole.

Friday’s publication from the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) is available here: “Live Register Age by Duration”. Duration analysis of the Live Register is conducted twice a year by the CSO; the current series of half-yearly analyses was introduced in April 1989. The analysis historically related to the second-last Friday of April and October, but there was a minor change in the most recent analysis. (More on this in the comments).

According to the RTE website, the CSO said all age groups showed an increase in the number of long-term claimants in the six months from April to October (2009), with the biggest rise of 53% coming among the under 20’s.

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